The New York Times announced that Donald Trump, who was president from 2016 to 2019, is now “likely” to win the 2024 election. The “Blue Wall” of states, which includes Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, supporting Trump has put him on track to return to the White House, according to the paper’s election forecast model.
The New York Times reports Trump could even win the popular vote across the country. Since — George W. Bush in 2004, no Republican has done that. The way to victory for Vice President Kamala Harris is now very narrow. To win, her team needs to win all three Blue Wall states.
Nate Cohn, a political analyst for The New York Times, said around 11 p.m. ET that Trump has a small but clear lead in these states. “Tonight is the first time we think Trump is likely to win,” he said, adding that many votes are still being counted, so the outcome could still change. The Times predicted that Trump would win the election 89% of the time at 11:20 p.m., and that he could get 299 electoral votes if his lead holds.
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